Science and Research

Time dependent outcomes modeling in a real-world analysis of the molecular tumor board at University Cancer Center Hamburg (2016-2022)

INTRODUCTION: Molecular tumor boards (MTBs) integrate clinical, pathological, and molecular data to prioritize therapy options. Because MTB-guided treatment starts at varying time points after MTB discussion, vulnerabilities to immortal time bias occur if treatment delay is ignored. METHODS: Retrospective survival analysis of 949 consecutive individuals discussed at the University Cancer Center Hamburg MTB (2016-2022). Index date (t0) was the first MTB discussion. Therapy initiation was modeled as a time-dependent exposure using Mantel-Byar methods and visualized with Simon-Makuch plots. Therapy strata were priority 1 targeted, priority 2 targeted, and non-targeted therapy. RESULTS: Among solid tumors (n = 854), targeted therapy was implemented in 24% and was off-label in 51%. ORR/DCR were 30.8%/61% for priority 1, 11.4%/36.4% for priority 2, and 37.5%/52.1% for non-targeted therapy (P = .017). The progression-free survival ratio (MTB-directed therapy vs immediately preceding line) exceeded 1.3 in 63% of targeted therapy recipients. From the MTB date, median survivalMTB was 16.5 months (priority 1), 15.5 months (priority 2), and 11.0 months (non-targeted). In Mantel-Byar analysis, progression-free survivalSimonMakuch favored priority 1 (P = .002) with 1-year rates of 28%, 12%, and 15% for priority 1, priority 2, and non-targeted therapy, respectively. One-year overall survivalSimonMakuch was 52%, 34%, and 42%. In a time-dependent Cox model, priority 1 was associated with lower risk of death versus no targeted post-MTB therapy (hazard ratio 0.80, 95% confidence interval 0.64-0.99, P = .038). CONCLUSIONS: After correction for immortal time bias, implementation of the top-priority MTB recommendation was associated with improved disease control and survival signals, although confounding and selection effects remain key limitations.

  • Velthaus-Rusik, J. L.
  • Weller, J. F.
  • Hoshaber, M.
  • Schmidt, B.
  • Albers-Leischner, C.
  • Kriegs, M.
  • Loges, S.
  • Bartels, S.
  • Schlüter, C.
  • Simon, R.
  • Volk, A. E.
  • Kubisch, C.
  • Ückert, F.
  • Riemann, L.
  • Weisel, K.
  • von Amsberg, G.
  • Alsdorf, W.
  • Bokemeyer, C.
  • Christopeit, M.

Keywords

  • Humans
  • Female
  • *Neoplasms/mortality/pathology/therapy/drug therapy
  • Male
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Middle Aged
  • Aged
  • Time Factors
  • *Molecular Targeted Therapy/methods
  • Germany
  • Mantel–Byar
  • Simon–Makuch
  • immortal time bias
  • molecular tumor board
  • precision oncology
  • predictive oncology
  • time-dependent covariate
Publication details
DOI: 10.1093/oncolo/oyag078
Journal: Oncologist
Number: 5
Work Type: Original
Location: TLRC
Disease Area: LC
Partner / Member: DKFZ
Access-Number: 41920942


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